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Welcome to a new year. And like those that came before it, 2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal one for commerce and retail media.
EMARKETER has already dubbed 2026 the year of “organizational evolution,” as retailers move retail media to the core of the shopping experience. WPP Media projected that commerce media outpaced TV spending in 2025, unseating the long-standing king of advertising. But the bigger shift is happening beneath the surface: the industry is moving beyond experimentation toward a more connected, mature ecosystem—one built on better data, stronger creativity, and, increasingly, trust.
As always, we expect new entrants, smarter solutions, and bolder campaigns from some of the world’s biggest brands. But success won’t come from noise alone. Clear propositions, measurable value, and deeper brand–retailer partnerships will matter more as expectations rise. It’s going to be a big year. That’s why SMG has created our first-ever trends and predictions flipbook, bringing together proprietary and industry insight to make six clear, provocative predictions for the year ahead.
The report features perspectives from leaders across the industry, including the IAB’s Colin Collburn, P&G’s Marta Roballo, MESH Experience’s Fiona Blades, Kantar’s Simon Atherley, Mintel’s Dan Takacs, and Canvas8’s Helen Jambunathan. It also includes key takeaways from SMG’s senior leadership, including CEO Katie Streeter Hurle and Senior Director of Global Strategy Ollie Shayer.
From the first fully AI-executed retail media campaigns to the renewed rise of human-led creative strategies—and everything in between—these six predictions explore how the industry will evolve from channel-led execution to a more joined-up system, where omnichannel storytelling, privacy-safe measurement, and creativity act as genuine drivers of growth.
We hope you’ll download the report, spend time with the ideas, and keep the conversation going by sharing your thoughts on LinkedIn or reaching out directly at hello@smg.team.
As Katie writes: “Our goal is to inform and inspire—not to provide definitive answers, but to help partners stay ahead of the curve. Most importantly, this is the start of a conversation. Debate moves the industry forward, and we hope this report sparks it.”
Here’s to the year ahead.